Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (2024)

Vos, T., Barber, R. M., Bell, B., Bertozzi-Villa, A., Biryukov, S., Bolliger, I., Charlson, F., Davis, A., Degenhardt, L., Dicker, D., Duan, L., Erskine, H., Feigin, V. L., Ferrari, A. J., Fitzmaurice, C., Fleming, T., Graetz, N., Guinovart, C., Haagsma, J., ... Murray, C. J. L. (2015). Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet, 386(9995), 743-800. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60692-4

Vos, Theo ; Barber, Ryan M. ; Bell, Brad et al. / Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. In: Lancet. 2015 ; Vol. 386, No. 9995. pp. 743-800.

@article{665427cc7e6942c183496e3ec9c4f59e,

title = "Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013",

abstract = "Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.",

author = "Theo Vos and Barber, {Ryan M.} and Brad Bell and Amelia Bertozzi-Villa and Stan Biryukov and Ian Bolliger and Fiona Charlson and Adrian Davis and Louisa Degenhardt and Daniel Dicker and Leilei Duan and Holly Erskine and Feigin, {Valery L.} and Ferrari, {Alize J.} and Christina Fitzmaurice and Thomas Fleming and Nicholas Graetz and Caterina Guinovart and Juanita Haagsma and Hansen, {Gillian M.} and Hanson, {Sarah Wulf} and Heuton, {Kyle R.} and Hideki Higashi and Nicholas Kassebaum and Hmwe Kyu and Evan Laurie and Xiofeng Liang and Katherine Lofgren and Rafael Lozano and MacIntyre, {Michael F.} and Maziar Moradi-Lakeh and Mohsen Naghavi and Grant Nguyen and Shaun Odell and Katrina Ortblad and Roberts, {David Allen} and Roth, {Gregory A.} and Logan Sandar and Serina, {Peter T.} and Stanaway, {Jeffrey D.} and Caitlyn Steiner and Bernadette Thomas and Vollset, {Stein Emil} and Harvey Whiteford and Wolock, {Timothy M.} and Pengpeng Ye and Maigeng Zhou and {\~A}vila, {Marco A.} and Aasvang, {Gunn Marit} and Cristiana Abbafati and Ozgoren, {Ayse Abbasoglu} and Foad Abd-Allah and Aziz, {Muna I.Abdel} and Abera, {Semaw F.} and Victor Aboyans and Abraham, {Jerry P.} and Biju Abraham and Ibrahim Abubakar and Abu-Raddad, {Laith J.} and Abu-Rmeileh, {Niveen M.E.} and Aburto, {Tania C.} and Tom Achoki and Ackerman, {Ilana N.} and Ademola Adelekan and Zanfina Ademi and Adou, {Ars{\`e}ne K.} and Adsuar, {Josef C.} and Johan Arnlov and Agardh, {Emilie E.} and {Al Khabouri}, {Mazin J.} and Alam, {Sayed Saidul} and Deena Alasfoor and Albittar, {Mohammed I.} and Alegretti, {Miguel A.} and Aleman, {Alicia V.} and Alemu, {Zewdie A.} and Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho and Samia Alhabib and Raghib Ali and Francois Alla and Peter Allebeck and Allen, {Peter J.} and AlMazroa, {Mohammad Abdulaziz} and Ubai Alsharif and Elena Alvarez and Nelson Alvis-Guzman and Omid Ameli and Heresh Amini and Walid Ammar and Anderson, {Benjamin O.} and Anderson, {H. Ross} and Antonio, {Carl Abelardo T.} and Palwasha Anwari and Henry Apfel and Arsenijevic, {Valentain S.Arsic} and Al Artaman and Asghar, {Rana J.} and Reza Assadi and Atkins, {Lydia S.} and Charles Atkinson and Alaa Badawi and Bahit, {Maria C.} and Talal Bakfalouni and Kalpana Balakrishnan and Shivanthi Balalla and Amitava Banerjee and Barker-Collo, {Suzanne L.} and Simon Barquera and Lars Barregard and Barrero, {Lope H.} and Sanjay Basu and Arindam Basu and Amanda Baxter and Justin Beardsley and Neeraj Bedi and Ettore Beghi and Tolesa Bekele and Bell, {Michelle L.} and Corina Benjet and Bennett, {Derrick A.} and Bensenor, {Isabela M.} and Habib Benzian and Eduardo Bernabe and Beyene, {Tariku J.} and Neeraj Bhala and Ashish Bhalla and Zulfiqar Bhutta and Kelly Bienhoff and Boris Bikbov and Abdulhak, {Aref Bin} and Blore, {Jed D.} and Blyth, {Fiona M.} and Bohensky, {Megan A.} and Basara, {Berrak Bora} and Guilherme Borges and Bornstein, {Natan M.} and Dipan Bose and Soufiane Boufous and Bourne, {Rupert R.} and Boyers, {Lindsay N.} and Michael Brainin and Michael Brauer and Brayne, {Carol E.G.} and Alexandra Brazinova and Breitborde, {Nicholas J.K.} and Hermann Brenner and Briggs, {Adam D.M.} and Brooks, {Peter M.} and Jonathan Brown and Brugha, {Traolach S.} and Rachelle Buchbinder and Buckle, {Geoffrey C.} and Gene Bukhman and Bulloch, {Andrew G.} and Michael Burch and Richard Burnett and Rosario Cardenas and Cabral, {Norberto L.} and Campos-Nonato, {Ismael R.} and Campuzano, {Julio C.} and Carapetis, {Jonathan R.} and Carpenter, {David O.} and Valeria Caso and Castaneda-Orjuela, {Carlos A.} and Ferran Catala-Lopez and Chadha, {Vineet K.} and Chang, {Jung Chen} and Honglei Chen and Wanqing Chen and Chiang, {Peggy P.} and Odgerel Chimed-Ochir and Rajiv Chowdhury and Hanne Christensen and Christophi, {Costas A.} and Chugh, {Sumeet S.} and Massimo Cirillo and Megan Coggeshall and Aaron Cohen and Valentina Colistro and Colquhoun, {Samantha M.} and Contreras, {Alejandra G.} and Cooper, {Leslie T.} and Cyrus Cooper and Kimberly Cooperrider and Josef Coresh and Monica Cortinovis and Criqui, {Michael H.} and Crump, {John A.} and Lucia Cuevas-Nasu and Rakhi Dandona and Lalit Dandona and Emily Dansereau and Dantes, {Hector G.} and Dargan, {Paul I.} and Gail Davey and Davitoiu, {Dragos V.} and Anand Dayama and {De La Cruz-Gongora}, Vanessa and {De La Vega}, {Shelley F.} and {De Leo}, Diego and {Del Pozo-Cruz}, Borja and Dellavalle, {Robert P.} and Kebede Deribe and Sarah Derrett and {Des Jarlais}, {Don C.} and Muluken Dessalegn and DeVeber, {Gabrielle A.} and Dharmaratne, {Samath D.} and Cesar Diaz-Torne and Ding, {Eric L.} and Klara Dokova and Dorsey, {E. R.} and Driscoll, {Tim R.} and Herbert Duber and Durrani, {Adnan M.} and Edmond, {Karen M.} and Ellenbogen, {Richard G.} and Matthias Endres and Ermakov, {Sergey P.} and Babak Eshrati and Alireza Esteghamati and Kara Estep and Saman Fahimi and Farshad Farzadfar and Fay, {Derek F.J.} and Felson, {David T.} and Fereshtehnejad, {Seyed Mohammad} and Fernandes, {Jefferson G.} and Ferri, {Cluesa P.} and Abraham Flaxman and Nataliya Foigt and Foreman, {Kyle J.} and Fowkes, {F. Gerry R.} and Franklin, {Richard C.} and Thomas Furst and Futran, {Neal D.} and Gabbe, {Belinda J.} and Gankpe, {Fortune G.} and Garcia-Guerra, {Francisco A.} and Geleijnse, {Johanna M.} and Gessner, {Bradford D.} and Gibney, {Katherine B.} and Gillum, {Richard F.} and Ginawi, {Ibrahim A.} and Maurice Giroud and Giorgia Giussani and Shifalika Goenka and Ketevan Goginashvili and Philimon Gona and {De Cosio}, {Teresita Gonzalez} and Gosselin, {Richard A.} and Gotay, {Carolyn C.} and Atsushi Goto and Gouda, {Hebe N.} and Guerrant, {Richard L.} and Gugnani, {Harish C.} and David Gunnell and Rajeev Gupta and Rahul Gupta and Gutierrez, {Reyna A.} and Nima Hafezi-Nejad and Holly Hagan and Yara Halasa and Hamadeh, {Randah R.} and Hannah Hamavid and Mouhanad Hammami and Hankey, {Graeme J.} and Yuantao Hao and Harb, {Hilda L.} and Haro, {Josep Maria} and Rasmus Havmoeller and Hay, {Roderick J.} and Simon Hay and Hedayati, {Mohammad T.} and Pi, {Ileana B.Heredia} and Pouria Heydarpour and Martha Hijar and Hoek, {Hans W.} and Hoffman, {Howard J.} and Hornberger, {John C.} and Hosgood, {H. Dean} and Mazeda Hossain and Hotez, {Peter J.} and Hoy, {Damian G.} and Mohamed Hsairi and Howard Hu and Guoqing Hu and Huang, {John J.} and Cheng Huang and Laetitia Huiart and Abdullatif Husseini and Marissa Iannarone and Iburg, {Kim M.} and Kaire Innos and Manami Inoue and Jacobsen, {Kathryn H.} and Jassal, {Simerjot K.} and Panniyammakal Jeemon and Jensen, {Paul N.} and Vivekanand Jha and Guohong Jiang and Ying Jiang and Jonas, {Jost B.} and Jonathan Joseph and Knud Juel and Haidong Kan and Andre Karch and Chante Karimkhani and Ganesan Karthikeyan and Ronit Katz and Anil Kaul and Norito Kawakami and Kazi, {Dhruv S.} and Kemp, {Andrew H.} and Kengne, {Andre P.} and Khader, {Yousef S.} and Khalifa, {Shams Eldin A.H.} and Khan, {Ejaz A.} and Gulfaraz Khan and Khang, {Young Ho} and Irma Khonelidze and Christian Kieling and Daniel Kim and Sungroul Kim and Kimokoti, {Ruth W.} and Yohannes Kinfu and Kinge, {Jonas M.} and Kissela, {Brett M.} and Miia Kivipelto and Luke Knibbs and Knudsen, {Ann Kristin} and Yoshihiro Kokubo and Soewarta Kosen and Alexander Kramer and Michael Kravchenko and Krishnamurthi, {Rita V.} and Sanjay Krishnaswami and Defo, {Barthelemy Kuate} and Bicer, {Burcu Kucuk} and Kuipers, {Ernst J.} and Kulkarni, {Veena S.} and Kaushalendra Kumar and Kumar, {G. Anil} and Kwan, {Gene F.} and Taavi Lai and Ratilal Lalloo and Hilton Lam and Qing Lan and Lansingh, {Van C.} and Heidi Larson and Anders Larsson and Lawrynowicz, {Alicia E.B.} and Leasher, {Janet L.} and Lee, {Jong Tae} and James Leigh and Ricky Leung and Miriam Levi and Bin Li and Yichong Li and Yongmei Li and Juan Liang and Stephen Lim and Lin, {Hsien Ho} and Margaret Lind and Lindsay, {M. Patrice} and Lipshultz, {Steven E.} and Shiwei Liu and Lloyd, {Belinda K.} and Ohno, {Summer Lockett} and Giancarlo Logroscino and Looker, {Katharine J.} and Lopez, {Alan D.} and Nancy Lopez-Olmedo and Joannie Lortet-Tieulent and Lotufo, {Paulo A.} and Nicola Low and Lucas, {Robyn M.} and Raimundas Lunevicius and Lyons, {Ronan A.} and Jixiang Ma and Stefan Ma and MacKay, {Mark T.} and Marek Majdan and Reza Malekzadeh and Mapoma, {Christopher C.} and Wagner Marcenes and March, {Lyn M.} and Chris Margono and Marks, {Guy B.} and Marzan, {Melvin B.} and Masci, {Joseph R.} and Mason-Jones, {Amanda J.} and Matzopoulos, {Richard G.} and Mayosi, {Bongani M.} and Mazorodze, {Tasara T.} and McGill, {Neil W.} and McGrath, {John J.} and Martin McKee and Abby McLain and McMahon, {Brian J.} and Meaney, {Peter A.} and Mehndiratta, {Man Mohan} and Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez and Wubegzier Mekonnen and Melaku, {Yohannes A.} and Michele Meltzer and Memish, {Ziad A.} and George Mensah and Atte Meretoja and Mhimbira, {Francis A.} and Renata Micha and Miller, {Ted R.} and Mills, {Edward J.} and Mitchell, {Philip B.} and Mock, {Charles N.} and Moffitt, {Terrie E.} and Ibrahim, {Norlinah Mohamed} and Mohammad, {Karzan A.} and Mokdad, {Ali H.} and Mola, {Glen L.} and Lorenzo Monasta and Marcella Montico and Montine, {Thomas J.} and Moore, {Ami R.} and Moran, {Andrew E.} and Lidia Morawska and Rintaro Mori and Joanna Moschandreas and Moturi, {Wilkister N.} and Madeline Moyer and Dariush Mozaffarian and Mueller, {Ulrich O.} and Mitsuru Mukaigawara and Murdoch, {Michele E.} and Joseph Murray and Murthy, {Kinnari S.} and Paria Naghavi and Ziad Nahas and Aliya Naheed and Naidoo, {Kovin S.} and Luigi Naldi and Devina Nand and Vinay Nangia and Narayan, {K. M.Venkat} and Denis Nash and Chakib Nejjari and Neupane, {Sudan P.} and Newman, {Lori M.} and Newton, {Charles R.} and Marie Ng and Ngalesoni, {Frida N.} and Nhung, {Nguyen T.} and Nisar, {Muhammad I.} and Sandra Nolte and Norheim, {Ole F.} and Norman, {Rosana E.} and Bo Norrving and Luke Nyakarahuka and Oh, {In Hwan} and Takayoshi Ohkubo and Omer, {Saad B.} and Opio, {John Nelson} and Alberto Ortiz and Pandian, {Jeyaraj D.} and Panelo, {Carlo Irwin A.} and Christina Papachristou and Park, {Eun Kee} and Parry, {Charles D.} and Caicedo, {Angel J.Paternina} and Patten, {Scott B.} and Paul, {Vinod K.} and Pavlin, {Boris I.} and Neil Pearce and Pedraza, {Lilia S.} and Pellegrini, {Carlos A.} and Pereira, {David M.} and Perez-Ruiz, {Fernando P.} and Norberto Perico and Aslam Pervaiz and Konrad Pesudovs and Peterson, {Carrie B.} and Max Petzold and Phillips, {Michael R.} and David Phillips and Bryan Phillips and Piel, {Frederic B.} and Dietrich Plass and Dan Poenaru and Polanczyk, {Guilherme V.} and Suzanne Polinder and Pope, {C. A.} and Svetlana Popova and Poulton, {Richie G.} and Farshad Pourmalek and Dorairaj Prabhakaran and Prasad, {Noela M.} and Dima Qato and Quistberg, {D. A.} and Anwar Rafay and Kazem Rahimi and Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar and Rahman, {Sajjad Ur} and Murugesan Raju and Ivo Rakovac and Rana, {Saleem M.} and Homie Razavi and Amany Refaat and Jurgen Rehm and Giuseppe Remuzzi and Serge Resnikoff and Ribeiro, {Antonio L.} and Riccio, {Patricia M.} and Lee Richardson and Richardus, {Jan Hendrik} and Riederer, {Anne M.} and Margot Robinson and Anna Roca and Alina Rodriguez and David Rojas-Rueda and Luca Ronfani and Dietrich Rothenbacher and Nobhojit Roy and Ruhago, {George M.} and Nsanzimana Sabin and Sacco, {Ralph L.} and Kjetil Ksoreide and Sukanta Saha and Ramesh Sahathevan and Sahraian, {Mohammad Ali} and Uchechukwu Sampson and Sanabria, {Juan R.} and Lidia Sanchez-Riera and Santos, {Itamar S.} and Maheswar Satpathy and Saunders, {James E.} and Monika Sawhney and Saylan, {Mete I.} and Peter Scarborough and Ben Schoettker and Schneider, {Ione J.C.} and Schwebel, {David C.} and Scott, {James G.} and Soraya Seedat and Sepanlou, {Sadaf G.} and Berrin Serdar and Servan-Mori, {Edson E.} and Katya Shackelford and Amira Shaheen and Saeid Shahraz and Levy, {Teresa Shamah} and Siyi Shangguan and Jun She and Sara Sheikhbahaei and Shepard, {Donald S.} and Peilin Shi and Kenji Shibuya and Yukito Shinohara and Rahman Shiri and ka*wkab Shishani and Ivy Shiue and Shrime, {Mark G.} and Sigfusdottir, {Inga D.} and Silberberg, {Donald H.} and Simard, {Edgar P.} and Shireen Sindi and Singh, {Jasvinder A.} and Lavanya Singh and Vegard Skirbekk and Karen Sliwa and Michael Soljak and Samir Soneji and Soshnikov, {Sergey S.} and Peter Speyer and Sposato, {Luciano A.} and Sreeramareddy, {Chandrashekhar T.} and Heidi Stoeckl and Stathopoulou, {Vasiliki Kalliopi} and Nadine Steckling and Stein, {Murray B.} and Stein, {Dan J.} and Steiner, {Timothy J.} and Andrea Stewart and Eden Stork and Stovner, {Lars J.} and Konstantinos Stroumpoulis and Lela Sturua and Sunguya, {Bruno F.} and Mamta Swaroop and Sykes, {Bryan L.} and Tabb, {Karen M.} and Ken Takahashi and Feng Tan and Nikhil Tandon and David Tanne and Marcel Tanner and Mohammad Tavakkoli and Taylor, {Hugh R.} and {Te Ao}, {Braden J.} and Temesgen, {Awoke Misganaw} and Have, {Margreet Ten} and Tenkorang, {Eric Yeboah} and Terkawi, {Abdullah Sulieman} and Theadom, {Alice M.} and Elissa Thomas and Thorne-Lyman, {Andrew L.} and Thrift, {Amanda G.} and Tleyjeh, {Imad M.} and Marcello Tonelli and Fotis Topouzis and Towbin, {Jeffrey A.} and Hideaki Toyoshima and Jefferson Traebert and Tran, {Bach X.} and Leonardo Trasande and Matias Trillini and Thomas Truelsen and Ulises Trujillo and Miltiadis Tsilimbaris and Tuzcu, {Emin M.} and Ukwaja, {Kingsley N.} and Undurraga, {Eduardo A.} and Uzun, {Selen B.} and {Van Brakel}, {Wim H.} and {Van De Vijver}, Steven and Dingenen, {Rita Van} and {Van Gool}, {Coen H.} and Varakin, {Yuri Y.} and Vasankari, {Tommi J.} and Vavilala, {Monica S.} and Veerman, {Lennert J.} and Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez and Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian and Lakshmi Vijayakumar and Salvador Villalpando and Violante, {Francesco S.} and Vlassov, {Vasiliy V.} and Stephen Waller and Wallin, {Mitchell T.} and Xia Wan and Linhong Wang and Jianli Wang and Yanping Wang and Warouw, {Tati S.} and Scott Weichenthal and Elisabete Weiderpass and Weintraub, {Robert G.} and Andrea Werdecker and Wessells, {K. Ryan} and Ronny Westerman and Wilkinson, {James D.} and Williams, {Hywel C.} and Williams, {Thomas N.} and Woldeyohannes, {Solomon M.} and Wolfe, {Charles D.A.} and Wong, {John Q.} and Haidong Wong and Woolf, {Anthony D.} and Wright, {Jonathan L.} and Brittany Wurtz and Gelin Xu and Gonghuan Yang and Yuichiro Yano and Yenesew, {Muluken A.} and Yentur, {Gokalp K.} and Paul Yip and Naohiro Yonemoto and Yoon, {Seok Jun} and Mustafa Younis and Chuanhua Yu and Kim, {Kim Yun} and Zaki, {Maysaa El Sayed} and Yong Zhang and Zheng Zhao and Yong Zhao and Jun Zhu and David Zonies and Zunt, {Joseph R.} and Salomon, {Joshua A.} and Murray, {Christopher J.L.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2015 Elsevier Ltd.",

year = "2015",

month = aug,

day = "22",

doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60692-4",

language = "英語",

volume = "386",

pages = "743--800",

journal = "Lancet",

issn = "0140-6736",

publisher = "Elsevier Ltd.",

number = "9995",

}

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. / Vos, Theo; Barber, Ryan M.; Bell, Brad et al.
In: Lancet, Vol. 386, No. 9995, 22.08.2015, p. 743-800.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013

T2 - A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

AU - Vos, Theo

AU - Barber, Ryan M.

AU - Bell, Brad

AU - Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia

AU - Biryukov, Stan

AU - Bolliger, Ian

AU - Charlson, Fiona

AU - Davis, Adrian

AU - Degenhardt, Louisa

AU - Dicker, Daniel

AU - Duan, Leilei

AU - Erskine, Holly

AU - Feigin, Valery L.

AU - Ferrari, Alize J.

AU - Fitzmaurice, Christina

AU - Fleming, Thomas

AU - Graetz, Nicholas

AU - Guinovart, Caterina

AU - Haagsma, Juanita

AU - Hansen, Gillian M.

AU - Hanson, Sarah Wulf

AU - Heuton, Kyle R.

AU - Higashi, Hideki

AU - Kassebaum, Nicholas

AU - Kyu, Hmwe

AU - Laurie, Evan

AU - Liang, Xiofeng

AU - Lofgren, Katherine

AU - Lozano, Rafael

AU - MacIntyre, Michael F.

AU - Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar

AU - Naghavi, Mohsen

AU - Nguyen, Grant

AU - Odell, Shaun

AU - Ortblad, Katrina

AU - Roberts, David Allen

AU - Roth, Gregory A.

AU - Sandar, Logan

AU - Serina, Peter T.

AU - Stanaway, Jeffrey D.

AU - Steiner, Caitlyn

AU - Thomas, Bernadette

AU - Vollset, Stein Emil

AU - Whiteford, Harvey

AU - Wolock, Timothy M.

AU - Ye, Pengpeng

AU - Zhou, Maigeng

AU - Ãvila, Marco A.

AU - Aasvang, Gunn Marit

AU - Abbafati, Cristiana

AU - Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu

AU - Abd-Allah, Foad

AU - Aziz, Muna I.Abdel

AU - Abera, Semaw F.

AU - Aboyans, Victor

AU - Abraham, Jerry P.

AU - Abraham, Biju

AU - Abubakar, Ibrahim

AU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

AU - Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E.

AU - Aburto, Tania C.

AU - Achoki, Tom

AU - Ackerman, Ilana N.

AU - Adelekan, Ademola

AU - Ademi, Zanfina

AU - Adou, Arsène K.

AU - Adsuar, Josef C.

AU - Arnlov, Johan

AU - Agardh, Emilie E.

AU - Al Khabouri, Mazin J.

AU - Alam, Sayed Saidul

AU - Alasfoor, Deena

AU - Albittar, Mohammed I.

AU - Alegretti, Miguel A.

AU - Aleman, Alicia V.

AU - Alemu, Zewdie A.

AU - Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael

AU - Alhabib, Samia

AU - Ali, Raghib

AU - Alla, Francois

AU - Allebeck, Peter

AU - Allen, Peter J.

AU - AlMazroa, Mohammad Abdulaziz

AU - Alsharif, Ubai

AU - Alvarez, Elena

AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson

AU - Ameli, Omid

AU - Amini, Heresh

AU - Ammar, Walid

AU - Anderson, Benjamin O.

AU - Anderson, H. Ross

AU - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.

AU - Anwari, Palwasha

AU - Apfel, Henry

AU - Arsenijevic, Valentain S.Arsic

AU - Artaman, Al

AU - Asghar, Rana J.

AU - Assadi, Reza

AU - Atkins, Lydia S.

AU - Atkinson, Charles

AU - Badawi, Alaa

AU - Bahit, Maria C.

AU - Bakfalouni, Talal

AU - Balakrishnan, Kalpana

AU - Balalla, Shivanthi

AU - Banerjee, Amitava

AU - Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.

AU - Barquera, Simon

AU - Barregard, Lars

AU - Barrero, Lope H.

AU - Basu, Sanjay

AU - Basu, Arindam

AU - Baxter, Amanda

AU - Beardsley, Justin

AU - Bedi, Neeraj

AU - Beghi, Ettore

AU - Bekele, Tolesa

AU - Bell, Michelle L.

AU - Benjet, Corina

AU - Bennett, Derrick A.

AU - Bensenor, Isabela M.

AU - Benzian, Habib

AU - Bernabe, Eduardo

AU - Beyene, Tariku J.

AU - Bhala, Neeraj

AU - Bhalla, Ashish

AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar

AU - Bienhoff, Kelly

AU - Bikbov, Boris

AU - Abdulhak, Aref Bin

AU - Blore, Jed D.

AU - Blyth, Fiona M.

AU - Bohensky, Megan A.

AU - Basara, Berrak Bora

AU - Borges, Guilherme

AU - Bornstein, Natan M.

AU - Bose, Dipan

AU - Boufous, Soufiane

AU - Bourne, Rupert R.

AU - Boyers, Lindsay N.

AU - Brainin, Michael

AU - Brauer, Michael

AU - Brayne, Carol E.G.

AU - Brazinova, Alexandra

AU - Breitborde, Nicholas J.K.

AU - Brenner, Hermann

AU - Briggs, Adam D.M.

AU - Brooks, Peter M.

AU - Brown, Jonathan

AU - Brugha, Traolach S.

AU - Buchbinder, Rachelle

AU - Buckle, Geoffrey C.

AU - Bukhman, Gene

AU - Bulloch, Andrew G.

AU - Burch, Michael

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N1 - Publisher Copyright:© 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

PY - 2015/8/22

Y1 - 2015/8/22

N2 - Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

AB - Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84940447040&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60692-4

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60692-4

M3 - 学術論文

C2 - 26063472

AN - SCOPUS:84940447040

SN - 0140-6736

VL - 386

SP - 743

EP - 800

JO - Lancet

JF - Lancet

IS - 9995

ER -

Vos T, Barber RM, Bell B, Bertozzi-Villa A, Biryukov S, Bolliger I et al. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet. 2015 Aug 22;386(9995):743-800. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60692-4